Senior Strategist and Pollster
On Sunday, November 6th, 2016, two days before the presidential election, Robert Cahaly, Senior Strategist and Pollster of Atlanta-based Trafalgar Group, bet the future of his company on his team’s unorthodox polling methodology–when national reporters asked if he would “stand by his polling results” showing a clear 300+ Trump victory, effectively rejecting the industry consensus of a large significant Hillary Clinton electoral win, he didn’t back down, hedge his bets, or equivocate.
Cahaly stood firm saying, “On Wednesday I’m either going to be the guy who got it right, or nobody is going to listen to me anymore.” Breitbart 11/7/16
What happened next is history, but the headlines and recognition for Cahaly and Trafalgar Group across America and around the globe had just begun:
“… a single firm had the most accurate polls in Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Colorado, and Georgia—the up-and-coming Trafalgar Group, headed by Robert Cahaly. Trafalgar was also perhaps the only pollster to correctly call Michigan and Pennsylvania for Trump.” Weekly Standard 11/21/16
“Each of those [Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Florida RealClearPolitics] averages went a little toward Trump at the end thanks to GOP pollster Trafalgar Group.” Washington Post 11/17/16
“In Michigan and Pennsylvania, deep blue states the GOP candidate has not won in decades, polls showed the race tightening in the home stretch, but only one poll, from Trafalgar Group, showed Trump with the lead.” The Hill 11/9/16
“But there’s another pollster here named Robert Cahaly, who’s the CEO of a polling group called Trafalgar. You haven’t heard much about Trafalgar, but they were right on the money on this…” Rush Limbaugh 11/9/16
Born in rural Georgia, Robert Cahaly was raised in Pendleton, South Carolina, and began his work in politics at age 10 campaigning door-to-door for a local county race. Cahaly’s portfolio spans three decades and 22 states with success at all levels of politics and public relations.
He has worked campaigns supporting Governors Carroll Campbell, David Beasley, Mike Huckabee, Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, and Henry McMaster; US Senators Strom Thurmond, Bob Dole, Tim Scott, and Ben Sasse; and Presidents George H. W. Bush, George W. Bush, and Donald J.Trump.
Along the way, Cahaly met and worked with political geniuses such as Lee Atwater, Dick Morris, Roger Stone, and John Sununu–learning everything he could from them.
As leader of The Trafalgar Group, Cahaly oversees a group of allied companies. Together with his team he works with federal, state, and local candidates as well as business and industry groups. Cahaly has particular experience and expertise in strategy, polling, and data analytics. He is also regarded as a specialist of issue advocacy and independent expenditure campaigns.
He is a highly sought-after lecturer and public speaker on topics ranging from modern polling techniques, candidate training, campaign management and strategy, issue advocacy, and public relations. Cahaly is often quoted in national and global publications and on cable news shows such as FoxNews with Neil Cavuto.
In 2017, The Trafalgar Group and Cahaly were alone in correctly calling the following major races: Georgia US House 6 special election, Alabama US Senate special election primary and runoff as well as the the Virginia Governor’s race.
In 2018, Real Clear Politics said, “Pollster Who Got it Right in 2016 Does it Again,” after Cahaly and his Trafalgar team were the the pollsters who called the most close races correctly. FoxNews’ Jesse Waters concluded “the folks at Trafalgar had a great year” after analyzing multiple races.