Senior Strategist and Pollster
On Sunday, November 6th, 2016, two days before the presidential election, Robert Cahaly, Senior Strategist and Pollster of Atlanta-based Trafalgar Group, bet the future of his company on his team’s unorthodox polling methodology–when national reporters asked if he would “stand by his polling results” showing a clear 300+ Trump victory, effectively rejecting the industry consensus of a large significant Hillary Clinton electoral win, he didn’t back down, hedge his bets, or equivocate.
Cahaly stood firm saying, “On Wednesday I’m either going to be the guy who got it right, or nobody is going to listen to me anymore.” Breitbart 11/7/16
What happened next is history, but the headlines and recognition for Cahaly and Trafalgar Group across America and around the globe had just begun:
“… a single firm had the most accurate polls in Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Colorado, and Georgia—the up-and-coming Trafalgar Group, headed by Robert Cahaly. Trafalgar was also perhaps the only pollster to correctly call Michigan and Pennsylvania for Trump.” Weekly Standard 11/21/16
“Each of those [Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Florida RealClearPolitics] averages went a little toward Trump at the end thanks to GOP pollster Trafalgar Group.” Washington Post 11/17/16
“In Michigan and Pennsylvania, deep blue states the GOP candidate has not won in decades, polls showed the race tightening in the home stretch, but only one poll, from Trafalgar Group, showed Trump with the lead.” The Hill 11/9/16
“But there’s another pollster here named Robert Cahaly, who’s the CEO of a polling group called Trafalgar. You haven’t heard much about Trafalgar, but they were right on the money on this…” Rush Limbaugh 11/9/16
Born in rural Georgia, Robert Cahaly was raised in Pendleton, South Carolina, and began his work in politics at age 10 campaigning door-to-door for a local county race. Cahaly’s portfolio spans three decades and 22 states with success at all levels of politics and public relations.
As leader of The Trafalgar Group, Cahaly oversees a group of allied companies. Together with his team he works with federal, state, and local candidates as well as business and industry groups. Cahaly has particular experience and expertise in strategy, polling, and data analytics. He is also regarded as a specialist of issue advocacy and independent expenditure campaigns.
He is a highly sought-after lecturer and public speaker on topics ranging from modern polling techniques, candidate training, campaign management and strategy, issue advocacy, and public relations. Cahaly is often quoted in national and global publications and on cable news shows such as FOXNews, CNN, and Newsmax.
In 2017, The Trafalgar Group and Cahaly were alone in correctly calling the following major races: Georgia US House 6 special election, Alabama US Senate special election primary and runoff as well as the the Virginia Governor’s race.
In 2018, Cahaly’s Trafalgar proved 2016 wasn’t a one-off by demonstrating that it’s unique methodology is beyond what so many in the industry are doing. Trafalgar had the most accurate poll in MO Sen, MI Sen, SC Gov, SC AG, ND Sen, FL Sen & FL Gov (only pollster to correctly call DeSantis win).
Real Clear Politics said, “Pollster Who Got it Right in 2016 Does it Again,” after Cahaly and his Trafalgar team were the the pollsters who called the most close races correctly. FoxNews’ Jesse Watters concluded “the folks at Trafalgar had a great year” after analyzing multiple races.
In 2020 Cahaly and Trafalgar out performed the competition again. Bret Baier of FOXNews said “Trafalgar really nailed a lot of these states with their polling. They were called wackos and way out there, yet they were the closest.” The Hill magazine named The Trafalgar Group as Winner on “Winners and losers from 2020’s election” article. The Washington Examiner says, “Cahaly’s Trafalgar Group has earned a reputation for accuracy the last three cycle.”
“While most polls proved just as inaccurate as they were in 2016, one polling agency stood out among the pack: The Trafalgar Group.” Daily Wire, Nov 5 2020 ,Title: Pro-Trump Pollster Called ‘Crazy’ Turns Out To Be Most Accurate Of All
Trafalgar had the lowest average difference between projected election margin and the actual margin. The only firm to a difference of under 2% while most firms were over 3% and 538 was at over 4%. Trafalgar had the most accurate polls in WI Pres (exact), FL Pres (1.2% off), NC Pres (.6% off), NC Sen (exact), AZ Sen (.4% off), TX Pres (.2% off), OH Pres, MO Pres, LA Pres (.6% off), & LA Sen.
In 2021 Cahaly and Trafalgar had the most accurate GA Sen Runoff Poll & second most accurate GA Sen Special Runoff Poll. “Trafalgar Group poll called Ossoff-Perdue a dead heat.” Fortune, Jan 9, 2021
“One of the most impressive pollsters in the country…and one of the few who predicted President Trump would win in 2016.” Lou Dobbs, Jan 6, 2021
In the 2022 cycle, Cahaly and Trafalgar were most accurate or second most accurate in the following races: OH Gov, NV Gov, NC Sen, NH Gov, GA Gov and GA Sen Runoff and NY Gov.
Real Clear Politics ranked Trafalgar Group #1 for accuracy among multi-state pollsters in the 2020 cycle.