For Immediate Release
Contact: Robert Cahaly

Manchin 10 point lead in race for West Virginia US Senate
Lead nearly doubles if he votes to confirm Kavanaugh 


(Atlanta) – The Trafalgar Group (TFG) released its first West Virgina U.S. Senate general election poll today. TFG, recognized for having the most accurate polling in the 2016 battleground states and Electoral College projection, conducted the poll from July 13th through July 16th. The poll measures West Virginia voters’ support for candidates in the US Senate election, and how that support would change if Senator Manchin votes for or against President Donald Trump’s Supreme Court pick, Brett Kavanaugh.

TFG conducted this survey of 1158 respondents from a random stratified selection of likely 2018 general election voters. The margin of error is +/- 2.88. The results were:

Ballot Test

49.9% Joe Manchin (D)
39.5% Patrick Morrisey (R)
2.3%   Rusty Hollen (L)
8.3%    Undecided                 

If Joe Manchin votes for Kavanaugh:

58.7% Joe Manchin (D)
30.1% Patrick Morrisey (R)
2.2%   Rusty Hollen (L)
8.1%   Undecided

If Joe Manchin votes against Kavanaugh:

46.5% Joe Manchin (D)
44.6% Patrick Morrisey (R)
2.3%   Rusty Hollen (L)
6.7%   Undecided

Commenting on the survey, Robert Cahaly, Senior Strategist and Pollster at The Trafalgar Group, said,”This survey demonstrates that support for the President and his agenda is by no means inextricably linked to support for the Republican party as a whole. Some have mistaken the 2016 Trump margin in WV as a more of a rejection of the Democratic party and less of a rejection of a specific Democratic nominee (Hillary Clinton), who, more than coincidentally, declared war on coal.”

Cahaly continued, “West Virginians, in my experience, base their voting choices less on partisanship and issues, but instead gravitate toward leaders with large personalities who speak in terms of what they will do for the people.  In this way, loyal support of Trump and Manchin are not dissimilar to the previous support enjoyed by Byrd and Rockefeller.

Cahaly also stated, “Manchin’s support for Gorsuch and more cordial relationship with President Trump than most Senate democrats have served him well. Roughly 30% of all those who “approve” or “strongly approve” of Trump also support Manchin. At the same time, Manchin is supported by over 85% of those of those who “disapprove” and ‘strongly disapprove” of Trump. A vote in favor of Kavanaugh would likely solidify those numbers among Trump supporters, leaving those who oppose the pick no where to go and making Manchin a lock for reelection.”

Cahaly concludes, “There is one wild card, according a news story in today‘s Journal-News Blankenship story, Don Blankenship, who lost the GOP nomination, claims he has the signatures to have his name added to the fall ballot as the Constitution Party nominee. The official position of the WV Secretary of State is that a ruling on whether the Blankenship candidacy violates the state’s “sore loser” law will be made if and when the requisite number of signatures have actually been filed and confirmed. Needless to say, this would only represent more bad news for any hope of a Morrisey and a GOP senate victory this fall.”

The Trafalgar Group is widely recognized as the most accurate polling firm of the 2016 election cycle, correctly forecasting the results in key battleground and other states (PA, FL, NC, MI, OH, CO, GA) and exactly predicting the Trump electoral college margin of victory (306-232). The results and information of their polls have been featured in thousands of U.S. and global news stories, television networks, and high-profile polling web sites like Real Clear Politics.  



Click here to read full report