LA US Senate Republican Primary Poll, Aug ’24 and Mar ’25
Louisiana will usher in a new type of election process in 2026. They will begin holding closed party primaries as opposed to their unique jungle primary system. These primaries will be by majority meaning there could be a winner on the first round if a candidate obtains over 50%. If no one prevails with 50%, there will be a runoff conducted. Incumbent Republican US Senator Bill Cassidy will face re-election and a Republican primary audience for the first time in his elected career. In 2021, Cassidy was one of seven Republican Senators to vote to convict Donald Trump at the conclusion of his impeachment trial. This will be the first time he has faced re-election since that vote.
Currently, LA State Treasurer John Fleming is the only announced challenger to Cassidy, but other names have been rumored as potential Republican primary challengers–such as Congressman Clay Higgins (LA-3), Congresswoman Julia Letlow (LA-5), former Congressman Garret Graves (LA-6), State Senator Blake Miguez, and Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta.
Trafalgar was asked by potential challenger Higgins to conduct surveys in August of last year and recently this month (March 2025). Data shows in both that Higgins is the strongest challenger to Cassidy, winning head to head runoffs by a large margin. However, both polls shows that the incumbent Cassidy is especially vulnerable in front of a Republican primary audience. He has enough support to advance to the runoff in all ballot scenarios tested, but loses to all potential challengers in a runoff situation.
Below are the two reports from both polls: