WI Supreme Court Poll, March 2025
Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage Joint Survey: Crawford Leads Schimel 51%-49% in Very Tight Race for Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice Seat; Ground game for Turnout Will Likely Decide Race; 1083 Likely Voters, Margin of Error 2.9%
Trafalgar Group and InsiderAdvantage, both recently ranked near the top for 2024 and remain the leading national private polling overall by various rating organizations, released their survey of the Wisconsin Supreme Court race on Monday. The race is extremely close and here is analysis by Matt Towery of InsiderAdvantage and Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar Group:
“These off-cycle special election races always depend on turnout. Among respondents who said they already have voted, Susan Crawford led by a 55%-45% margin. Among all voters who said they were ‘likely to vote’ Brad Schimel led by 53%-47%. While the race is nonpartisan, Crawford has the backing of Democrats and Schimel is backed by Republicans, including President Trump and Elon Musk.
Democrats have used Musk’s active participation through large donations, as an issue to motivate Democratic voters. But Musk’s involvement cuts both ways. Despite national surveys by pollsters who generally under-poll Donald Trump’s support and which suggest Musk is unpopular, our recent research found that Musk’s job performance approval ratings are high and are through the roof with Republicans. Musk also brings to the table talented experts whose get-out-the-vote effort in presidential swing states in ’24 was quite successful.
The wild cards in the race include:
• Whether voters on the GOP side feel as motivated for a Trump endorsed candidate who has not held a rally with, or had a presidential last-minute visit from, Donald Trump. The Trump name on a ballot is a magnet hard to replace by proxy.
• Can Schimel improve upon his share of the white vote? For a Republican backed candidate to win in Wisconsin, that candidate must have a decent lead among white voters. Our survey shows the two candidates basically tied as of now.
• Can the ‘vote chasers’ working for Schimel do their magic and make up for a clear ‘Democrat’ early lead by Crawford?
These type races are difficult to poll, as turnout is difficult to predict…and these contests are all about voter turnout and intensity.”
